Comments on: On Speculative Thinking - Be Positive http://www.alexloddengaard.com/2008/04/18/on-speculative-thinking-be-positive/ A blog by Alex Loddengaard Fri, 21 Nov 2008 09:41:55 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Alex Loddengaard http://www.alexloddengaard.com/2008/04/18/on-speculative-thinking-be-positive/#comment-408 Alex Loddengaard Fri, 18 Apr 2008 19:43:58 +0000 http://www.alexloddengaard.com/?p=161#comment-408 Matt and jsalvati, you guys have great points. I geared this post towards speculative thinking, and I suppose I should have used a second adjective, though I'm not sure which. I considered writing about the investment case, but I specifically didn't because I didn't want to fall into the trap of trying to define each case when you should be positive and each case when you shouldn't be. Instead I made the general came that it's better to be positive in speculative situations, which hopefully implies that there are cases when positive thinking isn't the right thing to do. Again, thanks for your feedback here. Matt and jsalvati, you guys have great points. I geared this post towards speculative thinking, and I suppose I should have used a second adjective, though I’m not sure which.

I considered writing about the investment case, but I specifically didn’t because I didn’t want to fall into the trap of trying to define each case when you should be positive and each case when you shouldn’t be. Instead I made the general came that it’s better to be positive in speculative situations, which hopefully implies that there are cases when positive thinking isn’t the right thing to do.

Again, thanks for your feedback here.

]]> By: jsalvati http://www.alexloddengaard.com/2008/04/18/on-speculative-thinking-be-positive/#comment-407 jsalvati Fri, 18 Apr 2008 19:16:22 +0000 http://www.alexloddengaard.com/?p=161#comment-407 I have to disagree here. Now, like you say, there are social benefits to being positive, but there are also costs. Being unjustifiably positive about a lot of things can lead you and others to make mistakes in judgment. For example, if you are trying to make investment decisions, being unjustifiably positive is a bad idea because it is important to make a decision based on the most realistic information feasible. The places where we should be unrealistically positive are those places where either our decisions have little impact or our decisions are not heavily impacted by our forecast of the future (like whether we are positive or not). I have to disagree here. Now, like you say, there are social benefits to being positive, but there are also costs. Being unjustifiably positive about a lot of things can lead you and others to make mistakes in judgment. For example, if you are trying to make investment decisions, being unjustifiably positive is a bad idea because it is important to make a decision based on the most realistic information feasible. The places where we should be unrealistically positive are those places where either our decisions have little impact or our decisions are not heavily impacted by our forecast of the future (like whether we are positive or not).

]]> By: Matt S. http://www.alexloddengaard.com/2008/04/18/on-speculative-thinking-be-positive/#comment-405 Matt S. Fri, 18 Apr 2008 17:36:32 +0000 http://www.alexloddengaard.com/?p=161#comment-405 I agree with you that spreading a positive attitude can have a tremendous amount of impact on the people around you, and thus hopefully spreads out to a greater community. The more people with a positive attitude the better society will function. However, I would suggest that positive attitudes are easier to maintain in a generally positive environment. As much as you can effect your environment, your environment can also effect you. I would think that for most people, if they lost their jobs and their homes it would be significantly more difficult for them to have a positive outlook. While I don't anticipate a genocide like the WWII example (or any at all), I think it is important to recognize that since WWII western countries have had rising prosperity (with short exceptions) and have not experienced prolonged difficult times. One of the reasons why facism and then nazism succeeded can be associated with intense economic hardship, which definately altered the German environment. Although when Hitler was elected in 1933, and the consequent Nuremberg Laws of 1935, the entire German population could not have foreseen the Holocaust or WWII at that point. As the war begun and continued, most people allowed the 'crimes against humanity' to increase in severity and almost no one spoke up. It all occured virtually uncontested. Was German society that fundementally different than it is now, or American society, who knows? I sure don't. But if anyone wishes to inquire how seemingly normal people can be lead to do terrible things, they should read The Lucifer Effect, by Philip Zimbardo. He describes the human tendencies towards evil and may even help one understand how one can overcome them should one ever be unfortunate enough to have the oppurtunity. I believe recognizing and embracing the flaws of humanity is the best way to overcome them, so when anyone comes to a crossroads they can take a step back and analyze the morality of their decision, or lack of decision to intervene. In short, I think if people forget, and become arrogant in thinking humankind is so much more liberal now than it was sixty years ago, then immoral decisions can be perpetuated in more subtle forms that are still harmful. I agree with you that spreading a positive attitude can have a tremendous amount of impact on the people around you, and thus hopefully spreads out to a greater community. The more people with a positive attitude the better society will function. However, I would suggest that positive attitudes are easier to maintain in a generally positive environment. As much as you can effect your environment, your environment can also effect you. I would think that for most people, if they lost their jobs and their homes it would be significantly more difficult for them to have a positive outlook. While I don’t anticipate a genocide like the WWII example (or any at all), I think it is important to recognize that since WWII western countries have had rising prosperity (with short exceptions) and have not experienced prolonged difficult times. One of the reasons why facism and then nazism succeeded can be associated with intense economic hardship, which definately altered the German environment. Although when Hitler was elected in 1933, and the consequent Nuremberg Laws of 1935, the entire German population could not have foreseen the Holocaust or WWII at that point. As the war begun and continued, most people allowed the ‘crimes against humanity’ to increase in severity and almost no one spoke up. It all occured virtually uncontested. Was German society that fundementally different than it is now, or American society, who knows? I sure don’t. But if anyone wishes to inquire how seemingly normal people can be lead to do terrible things, they should read The Lucifer Effect, by Philip Zimbardo. He describes the human tendencies towards evil and may even help one understand how one can overcome them should one ever be unfortunate enough to have the oppurtunity. I believe recognizing and embracing the flaws of humanity is the best way to overcome them, so when anyone comes to a crossroads they can take a step back and analyze the morality of their decision, or lack of decision to intervene. In short, I think if people forget, and become arrogant in thinking humankind is so much more liberal now than it was sixty years ago, then immoral decisions can be perpetuated in more subtle forms that are still harmful.

]]> By: Huckleberry Hart http://www.alexloddengaard.com/2008/04/18/on-speculative-thinking-be-positive/#comment-403 Huckleberry Hart Fri, 18 Apr 2008 14:34:58 +0000 http://www.alexloddengaard.com/?p=161#comment-403 Yea dood, keep that glass half full. Yea dood, keep that glass half full.

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